Monday, March 17, 2008

Permian Basin First Dryline Initiation Thunderstorm(s) of Year 2008

During the early morning hours of March 17th low level moisture continued to advect into the Permian Basin via a strong LLJ in advance of a deeply amplified positively tilted Upper Level Trough associated with a Closed Upper Level Low centered in southern Arizona and northern Sonora Mexico. Below is a the RUC model 500 MB wind screen capture as of 1200Z March 17th. As the author drove to work it was apparent that bountiful Gulf mositure had returned to the Permian Basin overnight and throughout the early morning as the outside lower atmosphere was very hazy (2M dewpoints of 60 degrees very near the




2M air temperature of 63 degrees). The wind had blown steadily at sustained rates of 25-30 mph with gust to 35 mph from the south and southeast advecting moisture transport northward (see the moisture transport image from the 850 MB Theta E, 0900Z, below). Also note the difference in atmospheric moisture content between the 00Z March 17th MAF Skew T diagram with respect to the 1200Z March 17th. Once arriving at work in downtown Midland at 1200 Z, the author














noted a low level clearing approaching from the southwest to northeast indicating that the dryline was nearing and soon any convection initiation would be drawing to a close for the Central Permian Basin (see 2M dewpoint at 0300Z/ 17th) . Below from the SPC, is a 850 MB analysis (1200Z) denoting the advancing dryline at lower levels and a 500 MB (1200Z) denoting the strong mid level winds associated with right exit maxima region around strong Upper Level Cold Core Low. Although wind profiles demonstrated strong speed shear, directional shear from 0-6km was not that impressive thus limiting any storm development along dryline forcing from significantly rotating. Below, are SBCAPE values from the SPC at 1200Z. Also included is a synoptic surface map at 1230Z showing surface low(s) and associated dryline and a Theta E streamline (College of Dupage) in western Permian Basin. The last following images are from MAF NWS WSR-88 Doppler Radar of developing convection along advancing dryline beginning with capture at 1230Z followed by 1242Z, 1252Z, and 1302Z. Looking from an office building in Midland toward the east at 1330Z, one could see strong northeastward shearing (65-70 knots at mid-level) of convectiving cumulus clouds parrallel with the advancing dryline. The convective cumulus small towers were rapdily advancing southeast by northeast away from the Permian Basin and never approached severe limits. By 1300Z the surface dewpoint had dropped to 30 degress from 60 degrees at 1200Z.

















































































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